Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
